Ben Button: Does it have the legs to win? Maybe not. Courtesy Boston Globe.

After weeks of build-up, our final Oscar prediction is here. Check out our previous predictions and don’t forget to come back Sunday for our Oscar LIVE BLOG. Because there is no point in addressing the nature of this award, we’ll just skip to the nominees and winner Slumdog Millionaire.

The Nominees
The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
It’s been close to 15 years since Forrest Gump eased its way into the hearts of Americans and critics alike. Now, another sweeping, American epic is up for Oscar gold. But Benjamin Button, in all its cinematic and technical glory, lacks an real emotional oomph. Expect David Fincher’s 3-hour film to pick up some technical wins–maybe even Best Supporting Actress–but to falter in this circle of glory.

Frost/Nixon
Ron Howard’s adaptation of the Broadway hit is the safest Oscar bet–like every other Ron Howard picture. Frost/Nixon is a much easier picture to decipher than Benjamin Button, but it still really lacks punch. It’s a great film–not to say every Best Picture has deserved its win–but Frost/Nixon just doesn’t feel like a best picture.

Milk
Like, say, every other category (especially Best Directing), Gus Van Sant’s Harvey Milk biopic is playing second fiddle to Slumdog Millionaire. That said, it seems the best candidate to upset Slumdog and it has Prop 8 to thank for that.

The Reader
If The Reader wins, we can only hope the Oscars don’t live to see an 82nd year. Harvey Weinstein’s brilliant campaigning or not, Nazis sex loses.

Slumdog Millionaire
For the past two Academy Awards, the little film that could was a comedy. This year, it’s Danny Boyle’s gimmicky drama about a little boy from the slums overcoming the odds, striking it rich and finding love. It’s a hopeful story in the Barack Obama presidency that everyone is saying is destined for Oscar glory. Well the hype killed it for me, I can’t deny that it will win. Thus…

The Winner: Slumdog Millionaire
It’s not exciting. It’s not going to draw viewers. It would be more exciting if The Dark Knight or especially WALL-E were fighting in this category, but predictability is a fact of the Oscars.

• Sean Penn takes Best Actor
• Anne Hathaway or Meryl Streep take Best Actress
• Someone other than Amy Adams takes Best Supporting Actress
• Kung Fu Panda takes Best Animated Feature Film (Really?)
• Heath Ledger, Danny Boyle and Slumdog still win for Best Supporting Actor, Best Directing and Best Picture, respectively

And because we can’t overhype it enough, don’t forget our LIVE BLOG of the Oscars Sunday at 7 p.m.

Charlie: anyway, want to open this Pandora’s box of snarky anti-hollywood jibes?
Andrew: yeah. so the Oscars
Charlie: I mean, it gets more and more depressing each year. Let’s be honest; the whole “Oscar movie” v.s. “actually-good-movie” battle becomes more and more true every year.
Andrew: That’s incredibly true. And the Oscars have this phenomenal ability to turn a movie that is pretty good into something that’s totally insufferable. Juno. Slumdog Millionaire.
Charlie: I know. I really am a firm believer that Slumdog is exploiting the economic crisis; it’s such a feel good film that clearly is profiting off how pissed off and poor everyone is getting.
Andrew: It’s exploiting poverty. Turning it into not-that-high art.
Charlie: True true. The academy is totally playing up its “hey-we’re-so-global” image (I mean, lets get serious: has the academy every cared about India before?). But it’s a great film. It really is blowing past everything right now; that seems to be a new trend, films that are little-engine-that-could types becomes their own little Hollywood stories and win everything.
Andrew: It really is. And the only tragedy is there are so many great films—better films—that deserves all that buzz and don’t get it. I think the best film I saw in 2008 which should have been up for Best Foreign Film last year. No nomination. The Academy might as well be running the OJ Simpson case circa 1997. Injustice abound.

Charlie: Speaking of foreign films, lets talk about the absurd choice of The Reader in Best Picture. Who saw The Reader? I don’t think people in England even saw The Reader. What a crap title too. “Nazi Woman has affair with young boy” is much more exciting, no?
Andrew: Exactly. That at least makes me kind of want to see it. But I’m pretty sure I wouldn’t. I’m not even sure Harvey Weinstein saw it. And wasn’t Liam Neeson or one of the Fiennes brothers—one of those British guys—in it? Whatever happened to him?
Charlie: Ralph: I think he was too pissed off that no one saw “The Duchess” and responded by not even seeing “The Reader”
Andrew: I think more tragic than all the nominations Harvey Weinstein ate up–and he certainly loves to eat–are the films that didn’t get it. I have my reservations about the Dark Knight, but it deserved that Best Picture nod. And WALL-E. WALL-E.
Charlie: I know, WALL-E is the film most grounded in cinematic history that satisfied both children and ultra-pretentious film theorists and, most importantly that blew every single film this year out of the water. But, it’s an animated film, so it clearly cant be THAT intelligent.
Andrew: Underage Nazi sex though. It’s brilliant!
Charlie: They didn’t do it for the gays with Brokeback, do it for the kids with WALL-E?
Andrew: For the kids. For the environmentalists. Heck, even the gays get it a little bit with WALL-E. After all, Hello, Dolly! played a pretty prominent role in that movie. Just do it for all of us, Academy.
Charlie: Seriously. They did do a few things right though with this years nominations. Take Best Supporting Actress especially. Some of the great performances are in that category.
Andrew: Right. And it’s probably the only category that has any diversity. The best part being—and no offense meant to the always incredible Amy Adams and Marisa Tomei—that none of the front runners in the category are white.
Charlie: I’m so glad Taraji P Henson got some love for her performance in Benjamin Button. She went from heartwarming hooker in Hustle and Flow to actually heartwarming old person in a nursing home in Ben Button.
Andrew: She’s the most deserving nod that movie had. I mean, it was good. But Brad Pitt? Seriously? The Actor in a Leading Role category, were it not for Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke, would be a total travesty.
Charlie: Yeah; I mean, Brad Pitt was just playing himself. Why Brad Pitt and no Leo DiCaprio? Revolutionary Road. My God. Talk about a movie screwed by the economic crisis.
Andrew: I’m not the biggest Revolutionary Road fan, but I think it’s more deserving that a lot of stuff in there.
Charlie: It’s a depressing film about the dying souls of suburban individuals because of the system—way too relevant in the bad way. Yeah, I think it definitely was a bit much at times. But Kate Winslet’s nom for The Reader is clearly a figurehead. She really should have been nominated for this. She is pitch-perfect as April, and gets every nuance of the role down
Andrew: Harvey Weinstein must be in bed with everyone at the Academy. And for that, I really feel bad for those voting buffoons.
Charlie: Yeah, I also think maybe Penelope Cruz got in there with him, because he is seriously campaigning for her….
Andrew: But a question: Slumdog is obviously going to take Best Picture. Who should take it though?
Charlie: I mean, if the Ocar goes to the film that is cinema for cinemas sake, I think Benjamin Button should get it. Milk’s got some solid support behind it (talk about great timing… cough prop 8… cough). Frost/Nixon is your “respected” and “mature” film of the bunch
Andrew: The thing is though, Frost/Nixon is a Ron Howard movie. As much as I loved Happy Days, I just don’t want him to win. It was certainly respectable, but it’s something my mom would like—kind of blase.
Charlie: If The Dark Knight and WALL-E were in here, it would be so much more exciting. And people might actually watch the Oscars.
Andrew: But hey. Hugh Jackman is hosting. Even if Milk loses, there’s still something for the Broadway crowd.
Charlie: Alright, your three biggest snubs—quick.
Andrew: Syndecdoche, NY for Best Original Screenplay. WALL-E for Best Picture. And it’s a little off and maybe didn’t even qualify for the category (or the Oscars, because who knows how those rules work) but My Winnipeg for Best Documentary.
Yours?
Charlie: since you’ve already taken WALL-E for best picture…
I’d say: 1) Kristin Scott Thomas for I’ve Loved you so long (and ILYSL for best foreign film– a category that, understandably, is teeming with possible contenders) 2) No Darron Aaronofsky; Best director for the the Wrestler (WTF? Stephen Daldry? Really?) 3) The Dark Knight and Chris Nolan for Picture and Director. Maybe maybe someday they will get recognition (oh and  shout-out to Winslet for rev. road)
oh that was in no particular order by the way
Andrew: Awesome. Well, I think we can something this up pretty easily. The Oscars suck, and good films seldom get any love from Harvey Weinstein’s f-ck buddy, the Academy. I we weren’t live blogging it Sunday, we probably wouldn’t watch the show either.

David Fincher on the Ben Button set. Courtesy Time Out NY.

The Award
There is virtually no question that Danny Boyle is going to win this award. But it is still fun to speculate, right?

Danny Boyle, Slumdog Millionaire
1996’s Trainspotting marked Danny Boyle’s foray into the hearts of critics. In 2002, he did 28 Days Later, marking the release of perhaps the most mature zombie movie ever made. And now, after winning every award this season, he is a lock for the Oscar. And my heart breaks a little, if only because Loveleen Kandan seems just as deserving, but is getting no credit.

Stephen Daldry, The Reader
His third nomination. His third loss. Andrew Stanton? Christopher Nolan? Could’ve done better, Academy.

David Fincher, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The badboy of the group, Fincher has the coolest resume of these nominees. Benjamin Button is also the most cinematically pure picture up for this many awards years. It is rooted in such a deep cinematic ethic that it really speaks to Fincher’s ability as a director. Don’t expect Fincher to win, but this nomination is at least justice for the great work he’s done in the past, especially Se7en and Zodiac.

Ron Howard, Frost/Nixon
Richie Cunningham has two Oscars under his belt. He is a safe choice here, but Frost/Nixon, in all its glory, was just too underwhelming to merit any major wins–Best Picture or Directing. Good effort, Ron. See you in a few years.

Gus Van Sant, Milk
Milk is a biopic and a straightforward one at that. It is certainly good and the actors shine, but there is no reason that this second-place finisher will win. However, I would love to see Gus Van Sant win. A win for Milk would be disappointing because he has so many other films that showcase his RISD education in the mainstream, but having an east coast-educated director win? That would be awesome.

The Winner: Danny Boyle
Really? There’s no point in even speculating otherwise. Maybe Gus Van Sant or David Fincher could get a good share of the votes, but not really.

For example, is someone more likely to win Best Actress if her film has also been nominated for Best Picture? (Yes!) But the greatest predictor (80 percent of what you need to know) is other awards earned that year, particularly from peers (the Directors Guild Awards, for instance, reliably foretells Best Picture). Genre matters a lot (the Academy has an aversion to comedy); MPAA and release date don’t at all. A film’s average user rating on IMDb (the Internet Movie Database) is sometimes a predictor of success; box grosses rarely are. And, as in Washington, politics matter, in ways foreseeable and not. Below, Silver’s results, including one upset we never would have anticipated.

How could anyone not give WALL-E Best Animated Picture? Courtesy IGN.

Today is about Best Documentary, Best Foreign Film and Best Picture Snub Animated Feature. And also those ones that aren’t that important because no one really understands them, but they are really important because they are nuanced and make the films really special. Anna Farris was great in The House Bunny, but that didn’t get any buzz. It’s things like editing, cinematography, etc. that really make these directors, writers, actors and films shine. Best Picture is an amalgamation of all these awards. I don’t really understand them, but I’m going to give it my best go.

Best Animated Film
Whatever that mess that happened with Kung Fu Panda was at the Annie’s, don’t expect it here. That award might appeal to the technical merit of the films, but most Oscar voters aren’t going to pick up on that. As justice to the greatest Best Picture snub and to honor one of the most pure and classic pieces of cinema in recent memory, Andrew Stanton will take the award for WALL-E.

Best Documentary Feature
The politics and rules behind this award are confusing at best. Just look at Werner Herzog’s Grizzly Man snub. That said, this is an especially strong crop of candidates this year and thankfully, Michael Moore is nowhere to be seen. The Garden should resonate with the strong pool of L.A. residents in the Academy, and The Betrayal could draw on memories of Vietnam. As entertaining and celebrated as Man on Wire though, I see this as a fight between Herzog’s Antarctica documentary Encounters at the End of the World and post-Katrina-themed Trouble the Water. The Academy owes Herzog after his snub, but Trouble–in its low-budget grit–is one of the most salient, affecting documentaries in recent memory. I’d like to see the latter take it, but it will be a fight to the end.

Best Editing
I think editing is the award I understand the least but know I should appreciate the most. I’m going to give this one to Slumdog just because it has been praised for its editing.

Best Cinematography
I think a lot of Slumdog’s appeal is the result of the technical mastery of the film. It’s editing and cinematography have been lauded for bringing alive Mumbai and making it the star of the feature. The Dark Knight, with its gritty reality, comic book ethos and sweeping vision, is Slumdog’s biggest competitor. All the other films seem a bit too traditional–too Atonement–to pull out a win. I’ll give my vote to Slumdog, but I would also recommend checking out this website which has an amazing list of the 10 best shots in film this year.

Is Brad Pitt too pretty to win an Oscar? Probably. Courtesy Filmofila.

The Nominees
Richard Jenkins, The Visitor
Jenkins staring role as emotionally dead Walter Vale is a surprisingly touching, very quiet, character study. Every movement and flinch feels intricately thought out. Jenkins does a superb job of creating a character that the audience can not just watch but grow with. Jenkins was absolutely deserving of a nomination, but will be hard-pressed to bring home the statue against this years competition.

Frank Langella, Frost/Nixon
Langella is a Broadway star who has accumulated three Tonys for Best Actor, one of which he won in 2007 for his performance as Tricky Dick in the Broadway version of Frost/Nixon.  He is an expert at capturing the crooked, sleazy ex-president. From his tired slump to muttering tone Langella gives an impressively measured and balanced portrayal of Nixon.  While an underdog behind some more popular movie actors, Langella is my dark horse candidate to throw a wrench in the plans of the heavyweight favorites.

Brad Pitt, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Brad Pitt’s acting ability has long been overshadowed by his looks and tabloid fame. His performance in Button demonstrates his continued growth as an actor, and his continued willingness to expand into more experimental roles. The Academy has rewarded his efforts with this nomination, but his less than stellar performance will struggle to bring home the hardware especially against this years competition. Button was driven largely by effects and make-up, so expect the film to win some of the auxilary categories but likely miss out here.

Sean Penn, Milk
Sean Penn is one of the two favorites for his roles as gay activist Harvey Milk. His turn as California’s first openly gay elected official has all the stuff the voters are looking for. In addition to a convincing and inspiring performance, Penn is playing a gay activist in the post-Prop 8 world, in a movie based on a true story with a tragic ending. Penn melts into the role in that is his most thrilling performance, and strikingly different from all his past performances.  The odds are good that one of the most talented actors of the generation could be rewarded come Oscar night.

Mickey Rourke, The Wrestler
Rourke is likely Penn’s strongest challenger for the award and deservingly so.  He gave a brutally touching “comeback” performance as an aging wrestler seeking redemption. It’s impossible to avoid the parallels between the character’s search for redemption and Rourke’s comeback effort. Hollywood insiders appreciate the struggles of Rourke’s personal life, and his ability to portray them on-screen in an honest and touchingly personal fashion.

The Winner: Frank Langella
In a stunning upset, Langella will shock the world by beating out Rourke and Penn on Oscar night. This award is completely up in the air with all the political behind the scenes bull that goes into every vote. Some voters will pick Rourke for his miraculous rebirth, others will fawn over Sean Penn to make sure Milk recieves praise if Slumdog steals Best Picture. And in the midst of it all Langella will eek out a victory.

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting Married. Courtesy Screen Rush

Here is round five in our coverage of the major Oscar categories. Today, we tackle one of the most competitive races: Best Actress in a Leading Role. For older posts, check here. And don’t forget to check back Thursday for our Best Actor predictions.

The Award
By my best estimate, there are no noteworthy trends in this category over the past decade. So I’m going to turn the attention to the major snubs in this category. First, Kate Winslet’s nod in The Reader over Revolutionary Road shows just how shrewd Harvey Weinstein is when it comes to the Oscars. Second, Kristin Scott Thomas’ omission from this race is a huge detriment to a very strong pool of candidates and makes the race far less interesting. I guess French is so last-year. Finally, just because she seems to get nominated every year without fail, I’m a little disappointed not to see Cate Blanchett in here for her performance in Benjamin Button. Cate–the new Meryl?

The Nominees
Anne Hathaway, Rachel Getting Married
Though I wouldn’t call Hathaway ugly in this movie, she tones down the attractiveness a bit. The Academy loves it when pretty young things get roughed up for their performances (see: Kidman, Nicole; Swank, Hilary; Theron, Charlize). As the only nomination from Jonathan Demme’s brilliant picture, Hathaway’s chances are good. She has been building a lot of buzz since her debut in The Princess Diaries and this is the first chance she’s had to really show her chops.

Angelina Jolie, Changeling
Jolie got early buzz for what was otherwise an underwhelming film. It most be a pleasant surprise for her to be in here. If the one-time Oscar winner was able to take home a golden statue along with her husband, this could go down as the cutest Academy Award ceremony ever. But ever since the release of Gran Torino, Changeling has been a nonentity in this race. Throw Jolie in the “It was an honor just to be nominated” pool.

Melissa Leo, Frozen River
Melissa Leo is the underdog here. She managed to sneak in under the radar in an indie pic and is the best hope in perhaps all of the major categories for an upset win. But Marion Cotillard’s out-of-nowhere win is undoubtedly bad news for Leo. Two unknowns in a row is unlikely.

Meryl Streep, Doubt
While looking up Streep, I was surprised to learn that in spite of her 15,862 16 prior nominations, she has only won twice. If Viola Davis loses to Penelope Cruz, Streep is this movie’s best chance for a win. Seeing as Helen Mirren is the only older, heavy-hitter to win in this category in the past decade, Streep could have a lock. And she certainly chews up enough scenery to win an Oscar for this role.

Kate Winslet, The Reader
Winslet has to have set a record for most nominations sans win by now. As I said earlier, her performance in her husband’s movie was the more deserving one and Harvey Weinstein’s politics will likely help her extend that record. A win for her would be a real detriment to the credibility of the Academy.

The Winner: Anne Hathaway
If Mickey Rourke takes Best Actor, Anne Hathaway will probably give this award up to Leo or, more likely, Streep. But I’m going to assume Sean Penn deservedly wins for Milk. That gives this award to Hathaway who delivered one of last year’s best performances and certainly deserves a win for her raw, emotional performance. Let’s just hope this is only the beginning of her career in this category.

Courtesy LA Times

Here is the third entry in our ongoing analysis of the most coveted categories in the Academy Awards. For more posts, check here. Today, the category is Best Original Screenplay.

The Nominees:
Frozen River (Courtney Hunt)
Two years running, the Original Screenplay award has gone to first time screenwriters (2007 – Michael Arndt, Little Miss Sunshine and 2008 – Diablo Cody, Juno), which bodes well for Hunt and her inaugural effort. However, those movies were also both lightning rods for buzz around this time last year, and nobody’s really talking about Frozen River, despite Melissa Leo’s nomination for Best Actress in a Leading Role—a two-horse race between Kate Winslet and Meryl Streep, and maybe dark horse Anne Hathaway. However, if the past is any indication, don’t count out Frozen River; it has received a solid amount of awards and critical recognition so far. Just don’t put any money on it, either.

Happy-Go-Lucky (Mike Leigh)
Leigh has something that none of the other live-action writing nominees have: previous nominations. This is his fourth nom for Original Screenplay since 1996’s Secrets & Lies , and he’s also been nominated twice for Best Director, but has no Oscars to his credit. It seems unlikely that the Academy feels it owes Leigh anything, however, and most of Happy-Go-Lucky’s press has revolved around the effervescent lead Sally Hawkins. The saving grace here is that Hawkins was surprisingly not nominated for Best Actress, despite the abundant goodwill regarding her performance (thanks, Angelina Jolie!), and this could be a boon for Leigh—he and Hawkins created the character together. Probably the strongest dark horse in the Original Screenplay race.

In Bruges (Martin McDonagh)
Also a first-time full-length film writer and director, McDonagh’s Colin Farrel-starring goofball caper picked up a head of steam upon obtaining Golden Globe nominations for Best Picture – Musical or Comedy and Best Supporting Actor – Musical or Comedy for both Farrel and Brendan Gleeson. Even with such good vibes, McDonagh’s a long shot. The only previous award the script has received is the British Independent Film Award’s Best Screenplay honor, and domestic fanfare over the film is still subdued. Not impossible, but highly unlikely.

Milk (Dustin Lance Black)
The clear frontrunner in the race so far. Milk’s first trailer made a point of mentioning “written by Dustin Lance Black” as prominently as it did “directed by Gus Van Sant”, which lends credence to the idea that Black was as much an asset to the film as its famed director, and the strategy has been continued throughout its campaigning. Black has tapped into the zeitgeist, and the fact that he’s young, handsome and clearly up-and-coming doesn’t hurt either. The biggest dealbreaker here could be the sentiment, held by a considerable number, that the movie cribbed heavily from the documentary The Life and Times of Harvey Milk, and the Academy may decide to give the Original Screenplay award to something either more original or less reliant on the other strong aspects of its production. Whether Van Sant, Penn, Brolin, Franco and co. help or hurt Black’s chances is one of the more interesting subplots of this year’s Awards. It’s worth noting that Milk is the only one of the Original Screenplay nominees with a legitimate chance at other awards (excluding Wall-E’s lock for Best Animated Feature), which is atypical of recent years.

Wall-E (Screenplay by Andrew Stanton, Jim Reardon, Story by Andrew Stanton and Pete Docter)
This is not the first instance of Stanton and Docter combining for an Original Screenplay nomination; both men received the same honor in 1995 for the first Toy Story. Nor is it the first example of an animated film competing in this category, as we’ve seen Finding Nemo and Ratatouille both nominated since Toy Story. However, an animated film has never won, and it doesn’t seem as though Wall-E will be the first to do so. It’s a commonly-held fact at this point that Wall-E will be going home with the Best Animated Feature award, and considering the snub for Best Picture it seems unlikely that the Academy will feel the need to compensate with an Original Screenplay win. Also, the movie is notably short on dialogue, which doesn’t bode well for an award based on writing. Great flick, certainly, but not primarily because of the screenplay.

The Winner: Milk
Milk has the spirit of the times, and it has the benefit of being arguably the best film of the year. As most people have come to realize, the best film doesn’t necessarily win the Oscar, and most pundits have conceded that it’s almost impossible to ignore the juggernaut that is Slumdog Millionaire in considering the Best Picture award. However, Milk seems to be the critics’ choice, and a concessionary Original Screenplay award—deserved, certainly, but with the added incentive of compensating for other snubs—will make sense to a lot of people. That being said, I really wanted to choose Happy-Go-Lucky here, before my good sense kept me in check… keep your eye on that one.

One and done: Heath Ledger wins for The Dark Knight. Courtesy Entertainment Weekly.

The Award: Unlike some categories this year Supporting Actor is far easier to decipher than Baz Luhrman’s newest commercial for Australia.

The Nominees
Josh Brolin, Milk
In one year, Brolin has rocketed to the top echelon of American actors. He plays the rock-jawed, rageful Dan White with compassion. At times it’s easy to forget he’s the bad guy. White is a complex character whose love-hate relationship with Sean Penn’s Harve Milk is one of the more interesting aspects of the film.

Robert Downey, Jr., Tropic Thunder
With 2008 Downey, Jr. has almost instantly revived his acting career. The talented actor has been off the radar for a while battling drug and alcohol problems, but his talent seems to have pulled him through. His role as the blue-eyed Australian pretty-boy, Kirk Lazurus, playing an African-American soldier in Vietnam was elegantly constructed and masterfully pulled off. While his acting was without question amazing, it was almost an upset for him to even receive the nomination with his role coming in a summer action-comedy blockbuster, and it seems unlikely that he will have the momentum to pull off an even bigger surprise.

Philip Seymour Hoffman, Doubt
Hoffman has emerged as a true acting heavy-weight over the past few years and continues to be recognized by his peers with another nomination here. While Hoffman’s as Capote did beat out Ledger’s turn as Ennis Del Mar for the 2005 Best Actor nod, it is unlikely he will have the momentum to pull off the upset this year. Hoffman portrays new-priest-in-town Father Flynn stoically in this play-turned-movie. Doubt relies heavily on characters rather than special effects so it was no surprise to see three nominations in the supporting categories.

Heath Ledger, The Dark Night
Ledger is the clear favorite to run away with this award and perhaps the only lock for any award heading into Oscar night. Ledger has three things going for him. His portrayal of the Joker was beyond spectacular. He is the lone major nomination from one of the highest-grossing movies of all time that got snubbed in the Best Picture, Best Director and Best Adapted Screenplay categories. He is nominated posthumously. If there’s one thing that can guarantee an Oscar, it’s death. However, the bottom line is that Ledger elevated the role beyond what everyone thought they knew or imagined possible. He outshone the legendary Jack Nicholson while playing adding new dimensions to dark and creepy.

Michael Shannon, Revolutionary Road
Shannon’s portrayal of John Givings rounds out this deserving quintet. While some would argue that he was outshone by leading stars Kate Winslet and Leo Di Caprio, Shannon’s nod here marks the only major nomination for the once lauded movie. The weight of carrying the whole movie’s awards hope will likely prove too much for Shannon, but he was nominated deservingly over the 11th hour dark horse candidate Dev Patel.

The Winner: Heath Ledger
No surprises from this category. While it would be a nice surprise to see Downey Jr. walk alway with the statue, the Academy will not miss the oppurtunity to recognize the late Ledger’s life and work with this award.